How to Read eSports Betting Odds and Find Value Bets
By Alex Carter • 8 min read
Published:
Understanding Odds: The Foundation
Every betting odds number represents a probability. Understanding this relationship is the single most important skill in becoming a profitable bettor.
Decimal Odds Explained
Most eSports bookmakers display decimal odds (also called European odds).
Formula: Odds = Payout per £1 staked (including your stake back)
| Odds | Return on £10 | Profit on £10 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | £15.00 | £5.00 |
| 2.00 | £20.00 | £10.00 |
| 3.00 | £30.00 | £20.00 |
| 5.00 | £50.00 | £40.00 |
Simple rule: Odds - 1 = your profit multiple. At 2.50, you profit £1.50 for every £1 staked.
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Formula: Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds
| Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| 1.50 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 3.00 | 33.3% |
| 4.00 | 25.0% |
| 10.00 | 10.0% |
Example: T1 are priced at 1.65 to win their match. The implied probability is 1 ÷ 1.65 = 60.6%. The bookmaker is saying T1 win 60.6% of the time.
The Bookmaker’s Margin (The Overround)
Here’s the critical concept most bettors miss: bookmakers never offer true probability in their odds. They add a margin.
Example: Two-team match
True probabilities: Team A 55% — Team B 45% = total 100%
Bookmaker’s implied probabilities:
- Team A at 1.70 → implied 58.8%
- Team B at 2.20 → implied 45.5%
- Total: 104.3% ← the 4.3% is the margin
This 4.3% is the bookmaker’s built-in profit. Over time, this erodes your returns regardless of skill.
How to Calculate Margin
- Convert both odds to implied probabilities
- Add them together
- Subtract 100%
Lower margin = better value. Pinnacle’s margins on eSports are typically 2-4%. Some soft bookmakers run 6-10% margins on lower-profile events.
What Is a Value Bet?
A value bet is any bet where your estimated probability exceeds the bookmaker’s implied probability.
Example:
- Bookmaker offers Team B at 2.50 (implied probability: 40%)
- Your analysis suggests Team B wins 48% of the time
- At 2.50 odds, a bet with 48% true probability has positive expected value
Expected Value formula:
EV = (Probability × Profit) - (1 - Probability) × Stake
For £10 at 2.50 with 48% true probability:
EV = (0.48 × 15) - (0.52 × 10) = 7.20 - 5.20 = +£2.00
Every £10 bet has an expected return of +£2 — a 20% ROI.
Finding Value: The Process
- Form your own probability estimate before looking at odds
- Convert the bookmaker’s odds to an implied probability
- Compare: If your estimate > implied probability, you have potential value
- Account for uncertainty: Only bet when your edge is at least 5% above implied probability to account for estimation errors
Common Mistakes with Odds
Thinking lower odds = better bet — Not true. Lower odds just mean lower probability. A 1.20 favourite is no “safer” than a 3.50 underdog from a value perspective. What matters is whether the probability is correctly priced.
Ignoring the margin — Betting at a bookmaker with a 9% margin versus a 3% margin costs you significantly over time. Always shop for the best available odds.
Confirmation bias — Favoring bets on your favourite team without adjusting for the actual probability. Your emotional estimate is not your analytical estimate.
Odds Shopping: The Free Edge
Different bookmakers offer different odds for the same market. Checking two or three bookmakers before placing costs you nothing and can add 5-15% to your returns over time.
Example: NAVI vs FaZe
- Betway: NAVI 1.80
- GG.bet: NAVI 1.85
- Pinnacle: NAVI 1.91
Always take 1.91. Over 100 bets, this adds up to weeks of additional profit.
See our bookmaker comparison to find who offers the best eSports odds.